Patrick DiCaprio at The Fantasy Baseball Generals noted the “special” season Edwin Encarnacion is having in Cincinnati, whereby his RBI total (41) is completely out-of-whack with his 19 home runs. Of those with 19 or more HR’s, only Hanley Ramirez has a worse RBI/HR total. This is worth nothing more than trivia, as RBI’s reflect zero on a player’s skill, but it did get me thinking about what kind of 2nd half we can expect from the 3B. As highlighted, Edwin has been unlucky in the RBI column and a passing glance at his BABIP might suggest he’s been unlucky overall, but I think the contrary is evident. His BABIP on the season stands at .269, a full 30 points lower than league average. The telling number, however, is Edwin’s line drive rate on the year. His LD% is a meager 14.3%, which translates to an expected BABIP of .263; *lower* than his already low seasonal number. Ouch.
The kicker is Edwin’s punchless FB%. Let me explain. Of players with over 200 AB’s on the season, Edwin has the fifth highest fly ball percentage at 52%. This is not inherently a bad thing if you can pull it off (Giambi @ 52%, Uggla @ 53%), but Edwin can’t. Over 1/5 of his FB’s aren’t leaving the infield. Of the same player pool, he’s placing 3rd highest in infield fly ball percentage (22%). That he’s hit 7 home runs in the last 30 days does not support his batted ball statistics.
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